statistical probability

Complete

Summary

Mutually exclusive, A and B will never occur together

Independent events, A occurs equally regardless of B or NB

Conditional independence, A and B are conditionally independent given C

Sensitivity and Specificity of a test

Concept

Base rate/persecutor fallacy

Conjunction fallacy, assuming that the probability of 2 events occuring together is higher than just 1 occuring

Law of Total Probability

ABNAANBNAP(AjB)P(NAjB)P(B)P(NB)P(AjNB)P(NAjNB)

Probability experiment, e.g. fair dice

  • repeatable
  • precise set of outcomes

Application

Sensitivity and Specifivity of a test